Heat & Cold Exposure in Sub-Saharan Africa
How Heat & Cold Exposure affects 48 countries in Sub-Saharan Africa.
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Excessive heat and cold exposure kill hundreds of thousands of people annually, though estimates vary widely due to measurement challenges. Cold-related mortality dominates globally, with cardiovascular and respiratory deaths increasing substantially during winter months, particularly among the elderly and those in fuel poverty. Heat-related mortality is rising as climate change drives more frequent and severe heatwaves: the 2003 European heatwave caused over 70,000 excess deaths, while the 2022 heatwave killed over 60,000. South Asia, the Middle East, and sub-Saharan Africa face increasing occupational heat stress, with outdoor workers in agriculture, construction, and manufacturing at greatest risk. The elderly, infants, people with chronic diseases, and those taking certain medications are physiologically vulnerable to both temperature extremes. Climate projections suggest heat-related mortality will increase dramatically over coming decades, particularly in tropical and subtropical regions already near human thermal tolerance limits. Sub-Saharan Africa faces the world's most acute health challenges, with the youngest population of any region, the highest burden of infectious diseases, and health systems constrained by limited financing and workforce shortages. In Sub-Saharan Africa, heat & cold exposure mortality is broadly in line with global averages, though the region's young demographic profile and high infectious disease burden shape the overall mortality landscape.
Heat action plans — early warning systems, public cooling centres, work-rest schedules for outdoor workers, and urban heat island mitigation (green spaces, reflective surfaces) — reduce heatwave mortality. Adequate housing insulation, heating fuel subsidies, and winter preparedness programmes address cold-related deaths. Climate adaptation investments in infrastructure, social protection systems, and health system preparedness are essential for reducing environmental temperature mortality in a warming world.
The mortality estimates presented on this page are derived from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study, produced by the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME). The GBD synthesizes data from vital registration systems, verbal autopsies, cancer registries, and surveillance networks across more than 200 countries and territories. Death rates are expressed per 100,000 population and are age-standardized, which adjusts for differences in age structure between populations so that comparisons across countries and over time reflect genuine differences in mortality risk rather than demographic composition.
The dataset typically covers the period from 1990 to 2023, although availability varies by country and cause. When interpreting the figures for heat & cold exposure in Sub-Saharan Africa, note that higher age-standardized rates indicate a greater mortality burden independent of whether a country's population is older or younger. Trends over time reveal whether public health interventions, economic development, and health system improvements have reduced or increased the toll of this condition in the region.
The cause-of-death categories used on this page follow the Global Burden of Disease cause hierarchy, a standardized classification that groups individual ICD-coded causes into clinically meaningful categories. The "share of deaths" metric shows what percentage of all deaths in a given country or region are attributed to heat & cold exposure. A rising share does not necessarily mean more people are dying from this cause — it may reflect success in reducing competing causes of death. Always examine both absolute rates and shares for a complete picture of mortality patterns in Sub-Saharan Africa.