How Countries Move Through Mortality Stages
Track the epidemiological transition — from infectious disease dominance to chronic disease burden. See where each country sits on the transition curve and how it has progressed over time.
| Country | Communicable % | NCD % | Injuries % | Stage | Comm. Change |
|---|
1990
2023
The Epidemiological Transition
From infectious disease to chronic illness: how countries transform
One of the defining patterns in global health is the epidemiological transition: the gradual shift from deaths dominated by infectious diseases to deaths dominated by chronic, non-communicable conditions. This transition mirrors economic development, urbanisation, and the demographic shift toward older populations.
The Transitions tool visualises this process using ternary plots that position each country based on the proportion of deaths from communicable diseases, non-communicable diseases, and injuries. Watch countries move across the diagram from 1990 to 2023, and explore how some nations have undergone rapid transitions while others remain in earlier stages.
What is the epidemiological transition?
The epidemiological transition describes the shift in a population's disease burden from predominantly communicable (infectious) diseases to non-communicable (chronic) diseases such as heart disease and cancer. This transition typically accompanies economic development, urbanisation, and improvements in sanitation and healthcare.
Which countries are still in early transition stages?
Several countries in sub-Saharan Africa — including Chad, Central African Republic, and Niger — remain in earlier stages of the epidemiological transition, with communicable diseases still accounting for a large share of deaths. The Transitions tool classifies each country's current phase.
How does the ternary plot show epidemiological transition?
The ternary plot places each country based on the share of deaths from three categories: communicable diseases, non-communicable diseases, and injuries. Countries in early transition cluster toward the communicable corner, while post-transition countries cluster toward the NCD corner. Animated trajectories show each country's movement over time.