Mortality Trend Projections to 2040
Where are death rates heading? Using 33 years of historical data (1990-2023), we extrapolate linear trends to project cause-specific mortality rates to 2040 for any country.
Projections on this page use simple linear regression on historical trends (1990-2023). They do not account for future policy changes, medical breakthroughs, pandemics, climate change, demographic shifts, or other complex factors. Real-world outcomes will differ. For official projections, see the IHME GBD Foresight tool.
| Cause | Current Rate | Projected 2040 | Change | % Change | Annual Trend |
|---|
| Cause | Your Rate | Best Rate | Best Country | Gap per 100k |
|---|
Disclaimer: Pipeline drugs face uncertain regulatory and efficacy outcomes. Estimated mortality impact is speculative and based on published trial data and expert projections. This is for educational purposes only.
Method: Ordinary least squares linear regression on age-standardised death rates from 1990 to 2023. Each cause is projected independently. Projected rates are clamped to a minimum of zero.
Limitations: Linear extrapolation assumes past trends continue unchanged. It cannot predict non-linear events (pandemics, policy shifts, breakthroughs), does not model interactions between causes, and ignores population structure changes.
Data source: IHME Global Burden of Disease 2023 via Our World in Data. Rates are age-standardised per 100,000 population.
Better alternatives: For policy-grade projections, see IHME GBD Foresight, WHO projections, or the Lancet Commission on Investing in Health scenario models.
Mortality Projections to 2040
Scenario-based forecasts using three decades of trend data
What will global mortality look like in 2040? The GBD Foresight tool extrapolates historical trends in age-standardised death rates to generate scenario-based projections for every country. It provides a data-driven lens on where mortality is heading if current trajectories persist.
These projections are designed for educational and exploratory use rather than as definitive forecasts. Select any country to see projected death rates for major cause categories, and examine how confidence intervals widen as projections extend further into the future.
How are the mortality projections calculated?
The Foresight simulator uses linear trend extrapolation based on historical age-standardised death rates from 1990 to 2023. It projects these trends forward to 2040 with confidence intervals. These are not predictions — they show what would happen if current trends continue unchanged.
Which countries are projected to see the biggest mortality changes?
Countries with rapidly declining communicable disease burdens (e.g. in sub-Saharan Africa) may see the largest absolute improvements. Conversely, some countries with rising substance use, self-harm, or metabolic disease mortality may see worsening trends in specific causes.
How reliable are mortality projections?
Trend-based projections become less reliable the further they extend. They assume historical patterns continue, which may not account for pandemics, policy changes, medical breakthroughs, or conflict. The confidence intervals widen over time to reflect this increasing uncertainty.